Can Mortality Drive Monarchs Toward Democratic Reforms?

Abstract

Do monarchs expecting brief reigns have the incentives to establish democratic institutions? In contrast with prevailing theories in political economy, I argue that the prospect of a short reign may in itself incentivize self-interested monarchs to establish democratic institutions that constrain their powers. To support this argument, I analyze a model of elite-driven democratization, using the reign of Jigme Dorji Wangchuck in Bhutan to illustrate its mechanisms and implications. In this model, absolute monarchy may prove costly and inefficient due to the short time horizons of monarchs who fear death. Consequently, such monarchs may seek to implement democratic institutions which limit their powers, establishing a more efficient constitutional monarchy. In light of this, I highlight how salient signals of a monarch's mortality, such as observable health problems, may act as catalysts for democratic reforms.