The projected impacts and implications of bottom spill events on an ultra-oligotrophic marine ecosystem

Abstract

The exploration, production, extraction, and transport of fossil fuels in the marine environment are accompanied by an inherent risk to the surrounding ecosystems as a result of ongoing operations or technical faults, accidents, or geo-hazards. Limited research has been conducted on the potential impact of fossil fuel pollution on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem due to the lack of information on organism responses to hydrocarbon pollution. In this study, we utilized the OpenOil model to simulate deep-water pollution events and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food-web models of the Israeli coastal region to evaluate and quantify the possible ecological impacts of pollution events that might occur due to fossil fuel exploitation-related activities. The models included local organism response curves to various contaminant levels, such as crude oil and condensate, in the water column and on the sea floor sediments. We further included deep uncertainty tools to introduce uncertainty associated with the scenarios, EwE model parameters, and functions. The results highlighted the spatial and temporal extent of the impact on the food web. In addition, by applying the deep uncertainty approach, we evaluated the impact on food-web functioning and projected possible outcomes of pollution events of varying intensities. The results of this study provide a quantitative assessment of the expected ecological impacts, which could assist decision-makers in developing management and conservation strategies.

Keywords: Ecosim, Ecospace, OpenOil, Eastern Mediterranean Sea, pollution, deep uncertainty, food web functioning