Domestic Political Problems and Strategic Engagement

Crisher, Brian; Souva, Mark

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Domestic Political Problems and Strategic Engagement

APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper

31 Pages Posted: 15 Jul 2012 Last revised: 23 Aug 2012

See all articles by Brian Crisher

Mark Souva

Florida State University - Department of Political Science

Date Written: 2012

Abstract

Extant research has not produced consistent findings on the relationship between domestic political problems and the use of force abroad. We argue that this ambiguity results from incomplete theorizing and flawed empirical tests. Diversionary arguments that focus on the rally-around-the-flag mechanism fail to take into account the strategic incentives of the diversionary target. The rationalist version of diversionary theory fails to fully analyze target incentives to avoid a possible diversionary use of force. We advance understanding of diversionary uses of force by introducing the concept strategic engagement. This concept clarifies the political incentives each actor has to engage in conflict and leads to several novel hypotheses. For example, targets that are very strong or have their own domestic problems will not strategically avoid a potential diverter. Empirical tests of the hypotheses for the period 1946-2000 are consistent with the argument.

Keywords: Diversionary theory, strategic conflict avoidance, interstate conflict

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Crisher, Brian and Souva, Mark, Domestic Political Problems and Strategic Engagement (2012). APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2107188