Download This PaperAn ARIMA Model to Forecast the Spread and the Final Size of COVID-2019 Epidemic in Italy
HEDG - Health Econometrics and Data Group Working Paper Series, University of York (2020)
12 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last revised: 7 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 4, 2020
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, has registered the highest COVID-2019 death rates and death toll in the world, to the present day. In this article I estimate an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the epidemic trend over the period after April 4, 2020, by using the Italian epidemiological data at national and regional level. The data refer to the number of daily confirmed cases officially registered by the Italian Ministry of Health (salute.gov.it) for the period February 20 to April 4, 2020. The main advantage of this model is that it is easy to manage and fit. Moreover, it may give a first understanding of the basic trends, by suggesting the hypothetic epidemic's inflection point and final size.
Note: Funding information: No funding to declare.
Conflict of Interest: Competing interest declaration: The author declares that he has no known competing financial interests or personal relationships which have, or could be perceived to have, influenced the work reported in this article.
Keywords: COVID-2019; infection disease; pandemic; epidemiological trend; ARIMA model; forecasting models
JEL Classification: C22; C53; I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation