Download This PaperScenario of the Corona Virus (COVID-19) in India
3 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 5, 2020
Abstract
If the coronavirus outbreak globally stretches on longer than we anticipated, then the huge number of people will get sick and the disruptions to daily life become even more severe then the early flaws in the testing process will bear a lot of the blame. There were some early problems with testing and that they are getting better now. But those early failures will help define the entire scope of this pandemic, and there’s not much we can do now to reverse the damage. Actually, we do not know how many people globally in general and in India in particular have the coronavirus. We know the official count is too low and that the number of confirmed cases is likely to explode in the coming weeks as testing improves. Widespread, accurate testing has been a key component of other countries’ success in bringing their outbreaks under control.
In what could spell real trouble for India is in the next three months, a new report from prestigious Johns Hopkins University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) has predicted that 21-day lockdown may be ineffective to stop the COVID-19 peak arriving in April-May-June - infecting few lakhs Indians in an optimistic (low) scenario. In the current lockdowns if the proper physical distancing or compliance is not properly followed, the total number of cases (asymptomatic, hospitalized and symptomatic) can even touch a massive figure.
In the most likely (Medium) scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity, the numbers of total cases can swell up to few lakhs. The optimistic (low) scenario constitutes decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity. To reach these numbers, Johns Hopkins and CDDEP - a public health research organisation - used IndiaSIM, a well-validated agent-based model of the Indian population, which has been published widely over many years and has been used for government decision-making has speculated a high number of cases for India. Therefore the real focus should be on raising the testing, procuring the N95-masks, and protective gowns of the doctors and nurses, Ventilators and quarantine places.
Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Ventilators, Social Distancing, Lock-down
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation