Download This PaperPreliminary Estimate of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in the Philippines using Linear Regression Analysis
6 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2020 Last revised: 9 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 7, 2020
Abstract
An estimate of the case fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines was done at the early onset of the outbreak. Using publicly available data of the daily confirmed cases as well as deaths, a simple linear regression analysis was done. The slope of the regression model was used as the case fatality rate and the confidence interval of the case fatality rate was calculated from the standard error of the slope.
Results revealed that the estimated case fatality of COVID-19 in the Philippines at the first few weeks of the outbreak is 4.35% with a 95% confidence interval of 4.12% to 4.55%. The estimate is found to be higher than estimates in mainland China and Italy as well as the global estimate. However, as the upcoming mass testing in the country is implemented, which will result to a more accurate number of confirmed cases and provided that the healthcare system remains intact or be better, the case fatality rate is expected to lower down.
Keywords: case fatality rate, COVID-19, simple linear regression, Philippines
JEL Classification: I00, C1
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