Download This PaperHigh Aversion to Stochastic Time Preference Shocks and Counterfactual Long-Run Risk in the Albuquerque et al. Valuation Risk Model
Critical Finance Review, 10 (3): 383-408 (2021)
52 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2018 Last revised: 11 Aug 2021
Date Written: July 13, 2020
Abstract
Does valuation risk induced by stochastic time preferences explain the equity premium puzzle as proposed by Albuquerque et al. (2016)? This explanation of the equity premium has several challenges. First, the valuation risk model implies extreme preference for early resolution of uncertainty and extreme aversion to valuation risk (which becomes infinite as elasticity of intertemporal substitution approaches one). Second, the model has a significant long-run risk component that counterfactually implies that consumption and dividend growth are highly persistent and predictable. Finally, I find no evidence that equity prices predict future risk-free rates as predicted by the baseline valuation risk model.
Keywords: valuation risk, equity premium, stochastic time preferences
JEL Classification: D81, G11, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Samuel Kruger (Contact Author)
University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance ( email )
Red McCombs School of Business
Austin, TX 78712
United States