Divided They Fall. Fragmented Parliaments and Government Stability

Cipullo, Davide

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3571910

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Divided They Fall. Fragmented Parliaments and Government Stability

CESifo Working Paper No. 8204

67 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2020

See all articles by Davide Cipullo

Davide Cipullo

Uppsala University

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. We show that each additional party with representation in Parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 4 percentage points. Governments with more resources at their disposal for bargaining are less likely to be replaced. When they are, new government leaders are younger and better educated, suggesting instability may induce positive selection. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability. Our findings indicate that the rising fragmentation in parliaments worldwide may have a substantial impact on stability and political selection.

Keywords: government stability, fragmentation, no-confidence votes, bargaining, alignment effect

JEL Classification: H100, H700, R500

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Cipullo, Davide, Divided They Fall. Fragmented Parliaments and Government Stability (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8204, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3571910 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571910