Download This PaperFrom Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?
Goswami, G. G. and Hossain, M. M. (2013). "From Judgemental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?", The Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol 36, No. 3, 1-41
9 Pages Posted: 6 May 2020
Date Written: September 1, 2013
Abstract
Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) conducted by the multilateral organizations like the World Bank and IMF falls under the domain of Judgmental Projection reflecting their views or judgment about the economy. The study incorporates time series forecast using ARIMA method to analyze debt sustainability in practice in Bangladesh. More specifically, macro, fiscal, current account and debt variables have been forecasted according to the requirement of debt sustainability framework (DSF) for use in a standard DSA template. Using the time series forecast based inputs, the study concludes that debt is sustainable for Bangladesh for the period 2013-2033 based on the standard country specific debt burden threshold. The study notes that the results produced by different methodologies broadly follow similar path. However, time series forecasts imply a better economic situation in terms of improved repayment capacity compared with judgmental projection.
Keywords: DSA, Bangladesh, ARIMA, Time Series Forecasting
JEL Classification: C22,C53
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