Download This PaperScaling Analysis of Daily New Cases of COVID-19 in Some Major Affected Countries
15 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 12, 2020
Abstract
In the present work scaling analysis has been performed over daily number of new cases of COVID-19 for seven mostly affected countries on the basis of total cumulative number of cases till 07 April, 2020 viz. USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Iran and UK excluding China and separately over India. The corresponding Hurst exponents have been estimated for all these eight different time series. The study shows strong long memory in the cases for USA, Spain and Iran. Again, for Italy, Germany, UK and India the results exhibit feeble long memory with Hurst exponents not significantly far from the critical value of true randomness. On the contrary for France the result shows a very interesting value of Hurst exponent at very near neighbourhood of zero showing a possible short memory in the corresponding data.
Keywords: COVID-19, scaling analysis, Hurst exponent, long memory, short memory
JEL Classification: C
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