U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel; Stock, James H.

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U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak

NBER Working Paper No. w26954

16 Pages Posted: 13 Apr 2020 Last revised: 23 Feb 2026

See all articles by Daniel J. Lewis

Karel Mertens

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

James H. Stock

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 2020

Abstract

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the response to the novel Coronavirus in the United States. The WEI shows a strong and sudden decline in economic activity starting in the week ending March 21, 2020. In the most recent week ending March 28, the WEI indicates economic activity has fallen further to -6.19% scaled to 4 quarter growth in GDP.

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Lewis, Daniel J. and Mertens, Karel and Stock, James H., U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak (April 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w26954, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574419