Download This PaperA Model with Exponentially Decreasing Intensity for COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak
8 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 15, 2020
Abstract
We provide a continuous time version of the model proposed by Mario Wuethrich on March 21, 2020 for the analysis of the current coronavirus disease outbreak. As in Wuethrich, the model is mainly aimed to the number of confirmed cases for a given outbreak of the disease. However, the possibility of applying the model to other effects of the disease, as the number of fatalities and recovered, can be also considered. We provide an example of application to Italian data on confirmed cases and deaths as of April 10, 2020. A backtesting exercise on China data is also presented.
Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, pandemic, prediction model, sub-exponential model
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