Download This PaperComments on 'The Pass-Through from Shorthorizon to Long-Horizon Inflation Expectations'
6 Pages Posted: 17 Apr 2020
Date Written: March 25, 2020
Abstract
In this paper, James investigates the evolution of the degree of the pass-through of short-term inflation forecasts to long-term inflation forecasts by using professional forecaster survey data and finds the anchoring of inflation expectations is stronger in many of the sample economies in recent years, especially in ones with inflation targeting in monetary policy. Based on the empirical findings, he judges that the recent missing inflation is transitory.
I think that his explanations on research motivation, data features, estimation methodology and empirical findings are very lucid. The estimations are solid and his interpretation of the estimation results are convincing.
My discussion of his paper consists of four parts. First, I discuss positioning of his paper in the literature. Second, I suggest some possible extensions. Third, I pose some questions. Finally, I point to some caveats that are not specific to his paper but rather general to works in the relevant research fields.
Full Publication: Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific
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