Pollen Likely Seasonal Factor in Inhibiting Flu-Like Epidemics. A Dutch Study into the Inverse Relation between Pollen Counts, Hay Fever and Flu-Like Incidence 2016-2019.
Science of the Total Environment, Forthcoming
Posted: 20 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 5, 2020
Abstract
There is uncertainty if current models for the COVID-19 pandemic should already take into account seasonality. That is because current environmental factors do not provide a powerful explanation of such seasonality, especially given climate differences between countries with moderate climates. It is hypothesized that one major factor is overlooked: pollen count. Pollen are documented to invoke strong immune responses and might create an environmental factor that makes it more difficult for flu-like viruses to survive outside a host. This Dutch study confirms that there is a (highly) significant inverse correlation between pollen count and weekly changes in medical flu consults, and that there is a highly significant inverse correlation between hay fever incidence, as measured by prescribed medication revenues, and weekly flu consults. This supports the idea that pollen are a direct or indirect factor in the seasonality of flu-like epidemics. If seasonality will be observed during the COVID-19 spread as well, it is not unlikely that pollen play a role.
Keywords: Flu-Like Epidemics, Environmental Factors, Seasonality, Pollen Induce Immune Response, Statistical Analysis
JEL Classification: Q00, Q51, Q58, I10, I19
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation