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Public Policy and Economic Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread: A Mathematical Modeling Study
33 Pages Posted: 23 Apr 2020
More...Abstract
Background: With the COVID-19 pandemic infecting millions of people, large-scale quarantine policies have been enacted across the globe. Understanding how to maximize the effectiveness of these policies while mitigating economic damage is essential. We develop a mathematical model to assess the impact of quarantine measures on deaths, hospitalizations, and economic output.
Methods: We expand the SEIR model to simulate the spread of COVID-19, incorporating the effects of quarantine policies and segmenting the population based on health risk and economic vulnerability. Using our model, we simulate a baseline scenario that leaves the current quarantine restrictions in place. We then simulate a rapid relaxation of the quarantine restrictions for non-seniors shortly after the outbreak is contained. Finally, we gradually relax the quarantine restrictions for the young individuals, while maintaining extremely strict restrictions for seniors.
Findings: In the baseline scenario, we find that over 76 weeks in a population of 330 million, there are 32,131 deaths among those under 60 and 175,775 deaths among those over 60, there is a peak of 189,136 hospitalizations, and the economy shrinks by 0.56%. In the scenario where quarantine is quickly lifted a second outbreak takes place. Overall, there are 242,869 deaths among those under 60, 545,946 deaths among those over 60, a peak of 4,363,654 hospitalizations, and the economy expands by 5.2%. In the scenario where quarantine policies are progressively relaxed for the young individuals, there are 33,750 deaths among those under 60, 187,993 deaths among those over 60, a peak of 189,136 hospitalizations, and the economy expands by 4%.
Interpretation: Strict restrictions on seniors combined with very gradual lifting of quarantine for the general population results in a limited number of deaths and lesser economic damage. We recommend this strategy and lowering contagiousness to control the pandemic while making quarantine economically viable.
Funding Statement: No funding to declare.
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Keywords: COVID-19, targeted quarantine, mathematical model
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
David Schwartzman
Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School
One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1133
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States