Download This PaperHow Testing Reduces Infections and Prevents Herd Immunity: An SIR Model with Testing
28 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 16, 2020
Abstract
In this paper, I incorporate infection testing into the classic SIR model of epidemics and analytically illustrate how testing can reduce the reproduction number and the total number of infections in an epidemic. Testing identifies infected individuals and reduces their contact rate, and therefore, reduces the reproduction number of the disease, total infections and even prevents herd immunity. Costs of testing can be kept low if initially sufficiently many tests are conducted. Moreover, when testing is implemented as a sustainable suppression policy, other temporary suppression policies become complementary to the sustainable suppression policy - testing - and can reduce total infections over the epidemic.
Keywords: COVID-19, Testing, SIR Model, Herd Immunity
JEL Classification: C61, J19
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