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Epidemiological Characteristics and Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei Province, China
28 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020
More...Abstract
Background: As the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China is gradually becoming under control, a summary of the epidemiological characteristics and intervention measures may help to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 and similar infectious diseases worldwide.
Methods: We extracted individual data for 67,706 COVID-19 cases from all 17 districts in Hubei Province from the Provincial Notifiable Disease Report System until March 7, 2020. We analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of the epidemic at four stages (before January 10, January 10-22, January 23-February 6, and February 7-March 7) of the outbreak and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of the epidemic.
Findings: The numbers of average daily new cases in Hubei Province in the four periods were 29·7, 838·2, 2,705·9 and 508·0, the average daily attack rates were 0·5, 14·2, 45·7 and 8·6 cases per 106 people, and the doubling times were 4·35, 4·14, 4·22 and 6·21 days, respectively. Fourteen days (February 6) after the closure of Wuhan (January 23), the number of daily new cases and attack rate both declined by 38·2%. Eight days (February 15) after isolation on February 7 of centralized treatment, cases, suspected patients, those with fever symptoms and close contact, the above number declined by 59·9%.
Interpretation: The epidemic reached its peak at 56 days, and non-pharmaceutical intervention measures achieved good results in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province.
Funding Statement: Major Research Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91843302).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: Ethics approval for the data collection and analysis was determined by the national infectious disease surveillance system; thus, institutional review board approval was not applicable.
Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiological Characteristic; Non-pharmaceutical Intervention
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