Political Volatility 2017-2019

Abstract

This note reflects an attempt to apply a simple markov chain/process model to the political change process as it applies to voting between the the 2017 General Election and the recent 2019 one. The change was dramatic, going from the 2017 state of the parties where there was effectively a hung parliament to a very large majority for the Conservatives in 2019.

Using data kindly supplied by Electoral Calculus In the form of a transition matrix mapping the 2017 vote to the 2019 I constructed a simple Markov process to envisage the changing of opinions and votes as a dependent trials process.