A Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19
Posted: 21 Apr 2020 Last revised: 4 May 2020
Date Written: April 19, 2020
Abstract
A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, it causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia. It caused to the death rate of 6.18% among 1,610,909 confirmed cases around the world to April 10th, 2020. In this brief current study, we will present a simple mathematical model where we show how the probability of successfully getting infected when coming into contact with an infected individual and the per-capita contact rate affect the healthy and infected population with time. The proposed model is used to offer predictions about the behavior of COVID-19 for a shorter period of time.
Keywords: COVID-19, Epidemic, Fuzzy sets, Mathematical modelling
JEL Classification: 92C60, 93A30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation