Download This PaperHistory Is the Best Model – A Comparison of the COVID-19 with the 1918-19 Pandemic Influenza in United Kingdom
4 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 22, 2020
Abstract
We review the three mortality waves of 1918-19 influenza pandemic in England and Wales (EW), we also show all-cause and pneumonia and influenza associated deaths in pre- and post-pandemic periods. We argue that the current COVID-19 in EW is comparable to the major wave of 1918-19 influenza, thus the forecast of the trend in the next few month or years should consider that of the 1918-19 influenza.
Keywords: multiple waves, influenza, COVID-19, post-pandemic
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
He, Daihai and Zhao, Shi and Li, Yingke and Zhuang, Zian and Cao, Peihua and Gao, Daozhou and Lou, Yijun and Yang, Lin, History Is the Best Model – A Comparison of the COVID-19 with the 1918-19 Pandemic Influenza in United Kingdom (April 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582393 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582393
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