Download This PaperThe Logic of Uncertainty in Law and Life
36 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2020 Last revised: 7 Oct 2020
Date Written: January 20, 2020
Abstract
My central interest is decisionmaking in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. A method appropriate for both specialized inquiries and everyday reasoning is based on credal logic, which employs multivalent degrees of belief rather than traditional probability theory. It accounts for epistemic uncertainty as unallocated belief. It holds that, when facing real uncertainty, if a person believes a and believes b, then the person believes a and b together. This brand of multivalent logic underlies and justifies how legal decisionmakers and the rest of us find facts in a world infused with epistemic uncertainty. Indeed, this Article closes by showing the equivalence of multivalent logic and inference to the best explanation. By demonstrating this similarity in reasoning, I aim to shore up our faith in the logic of traditional legal reasoning.
Keywords: logic, factfiding, evidence, proof
JEL Classification: K40, K41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Kevin M. Clermont (Contact Author)
Cornell Law School ( email )
Myron Taylor Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
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607-255-7193 (Fax)