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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infectious Trend Simulation in Malaysia a Mathematical Epidemiologic Modelling Study
31 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2020
More...Abstract
Background: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak appeared in the city of Wuhan, mainland China on Dec 31, 2019, the geographical spread of the epidemic was swift. Malaysia is one of the countries that were hit substantially by the outbreak, particularly in the second wave of the outbreak. We aim to simulate the infectious trend of COVID-19 in order to understand the severity of the disease and to simulate the infectious trajectory to determine the approximate number of days required for the trend to decline.
Methods: We used data on the number of confirmed positive infectious cases (as reported by Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH)) from Jan 25, 2020 to March 31, 2020 in order to infer the severity of the COVID-19 infectious trend in Malaysia. We simulated the infectious count for the same duration to assess the predictive capability of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. Furthermore, we used the same model to project the simulation trajectory of confirmed positive infectious cases for 80 days from the beginning of the outbreak and extended the trajectory for another 30 days to obtain an overall picture of the severity of the disease in Malaysia. We also utilised the transmission rate β to predict the cumulative number of infectious individuals.
Findings: By using the SIR model, we obtained the simulated infectious cases count which was not far off from the actual count. The simulated trend was able to mimic the actual count and also capture the spikes in the actual approximately. The infectious trajectory simulation for 80 days and the extended trajectory for 110 days depicts that the inclining trend has reached its peak and has ended, and will start declining towards late April, 2020. Furthermore, our predicted cumulative number of infectious individuals tallies with the preparations undertaken by the MOH.
Interpretation: The simulation provides an indication of the severity of COVID-19 disease in Malaysia, suggesting a peak of infectiousness in mid-March, 2020 and a probable decline in late April, 2020. Overall, our findings indicate that outbreak control measures such as the Movement Control Order (MCO), social distancing and increased hygienic awareness is needed to control the transmission of the outbreak in Malaysia.
Funding Statement: Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia and Ministry of Health, Malaysia
Declaration of Interests: MRKA, KG, IK, ISCI, MBA, JA, NHAR and NSMD reports utilising resources provided by the Institute for Mathematical Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia. NAS reports resources provided by the Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Malaysia. All authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.
Keywords: COVID-19, SIR Modelling, Transmission Rate, predicted Daily Infectious Individuals, Predicted Cumulative Infectious Individuals
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation