Download This PaperSpread of COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Model
11 Pages Posted: 5 May 2020
Date Written: April 28, 2020
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has been the greatest threat to human lives of the entire world since January 2020. In the present article, we discuss a mathematical model regarding the spread of COVID-19 in India. This model is aimed at finding the nature of time dependence of the number of symptomatic patients, officially recorded in the country, during the span from 1st March 2020 to 23rd March 2020. The number of persons infected with coronavirus disease, as declared by the country officially on a regular basis, is most probably the number of patients who have experienced the symptoms of the disease. The present study is based on a differential equation that has been formed here to find the dynamics of how the number of asymptomatic patients increases with time. Number of symptomatic patients has been estimated from its solution. Its time evolution is found to be quite consistent with the recorded data, for a certain set of parameter values. Using this particular set, we have discussed the probable effects of the imposition and the subsequent withdrawal of lockdown in the country.
Note: Funding: We hereby confirm that we have not received any financial grant for our research in this field.
Conflict of Interest: We hereby declare that there is no conflict of interest associated with this article.
Keywords: Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19, Social Distancing, Lockdown, Spread of an Epidemic, Mathematical Model
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