Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements

58 Pages Posted: 1 May 2020 Last revised: 17 May 2026

See all articles by Masahiro Yamada

Masahiro Yamada

Tokyo University of Science

Takatoshi Ito

University of Tokyo - Faculty of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Ministry of Finance, Tokyo

Date Written: April 2020

Abstract

We examine whether the forex market quality, measured by the speed of price discovery and liquidity recovery after macro statistics announcements, has improved using the EBS high-frequency data for 20 years. Considering the recent rise of computer-based trading, a popular conjecture is that the market quality has improved. Our empirical analysis, however, suggests that an improving trend is only observed in price discovery. Moreover, two measures are negatively correlated because an increasing number of traders improves liquidity but slows down price discovery. Theoretically, the latter finding implies that “fast” traders have a poor interpretation of how the news will impact prices.

Suggested Citation

Yamada, Masahiro and Ito, Takatoshi, Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements (April 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27036, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3588153

Masahiro Yamada (Contact Author)

Tokyo University of Science ( email )

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Takatoshi Ito

University of Tokyo - Faculty of Economics ( email )

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Tokyo 113-0033
Japan

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Ministry of Finance, Tokyo ( email )

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