Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

Superti, Luiz H

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3484588

Download This Paper

Open PDF in Browser

Add Paper to My Library

Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

58 Pages Posted: 27 Nov 2019 Last revised: 9 Nov 2020

See all articles by Luiz H Superti

Luiz H Superti

University of Sao Paulo (USP), Faculty of Economics, Administration and Accounting (FEA), Students

Date Written: November 6, 2020

Abstract

The program Bolsa Família is a pillar of Brazil's welfare system. However, it is possible that the program encouraged beneficiaries to have more children. Using federal data and the eligibility rule, we propose a regression discontinuity to verify the program's effect on fertility outcomes. Problems associated with the data such as manipulation and attrition are solved by using novel procedures found in the literature. We found an effect on birth spacing but not on fertility rates. This study complements the literature in regard to cash transfers and fertility outcomes, and empirical evidence for the quantity-quality trade-off in fertility decisions.

Keywords: Bolsa Família, Fertility, Birth Spacing Cash Transfer

JEL Classification: J13, J18, 012

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Superti, Luiz H, Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach (November 6, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3484588 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3484588