Download This PaperAnalysis of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in England: Estimates for Mortality Rate, Survival Time, and Trends in Deaths
18 Pages Posted: 11 May 2020
Date Written: May 1, 2020
Abstract
Background: This study aimed to estimate mortality rate and survival time for patients in England with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and establish a model to predict trends in future deaths.
Methods: The precision of estimates for predicted laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (generated by predictive models based on survival times from 0 to 16 days) was quantified. The predictive model with greatest accuracy was used to generate precise estimates of predicted deaths until 29 April 2020. Joinpoint trend analysis was performed to investigate for time periods with significantly different rates in daily deaths.
Results: Mortality rate for patients in England with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 was 19.49% (95% confidence interval 19.26% to 19.72%). Survival time for patients who died from SARS-CoV-2 infection was eight days. These findings established a predictive model, the accuracy of which was compared with reported data: percentage difference for trends in cumulative and daily deaths, 0.67% and 3.03%, respectively. Estimates for deaths generated until 29 April 2020 estimated 20,279 cumulative laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths in England by 29 April. Predicted daily laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths during the following time intervals were: 210.59 (27 to 30 March), 417.58 (30 March to 2 April), 482.66 (2 to 6 April), 746.21 (6 to 17 April), 642.63 (17 to 25 April), and 497.89 (25 to 29 April) mean daily deaths (P<0.05).
Conclusions: Mortality rate for patients in England with clinical need for SARS-CoV-2 testing is 19.49%. The predictive model had accuracy of 97% to 99% when predicting daily and cumulative laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
Note: Funding: No authors received funding to support this work.
Conflict of Interest: No support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Ethical Approval: The dataset was published by Public Health England under an Open Government Licence to be freely used without the requirement for ethical approval.
Keywords: COVID-19, survival rate, mortality, statistical model, respiratory tract infections
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