An Estimate of Unidentified and Total U.S. Coronavirus Cases by State on April 11, 2020

Breton, Theodore R.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3583941

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An Estimate of Unidentified and Total U.S. Coronavirus Cases by State on April 11, 2020

20 Pages Posted: 1 May 2020 Last revised: 1 May 2020

See all articles by Theodore R. Breton

Theodore R. Breton

George Mason University - Department of Economics; Universidad EAFIT - School of Economics and Finance - Center for Research in Economic & Finance (CIEF)

Date Written: April 28, 2020

Abstract

I use data on cumulative tests, positive tests, and deaths for the coronavirus in South Korea and the U.S. lower-48 states during April 2020 to estimate the extent of infection and the unidentified share of the infected population in each state and in the U.S. as a whole on April 11, 2020. I find that 3.8 million people, or 1.2% of the U.S. population, were infected in the U.S., with rates of infection that ranged from 0.1% in more rural states to 7.0% in New York state. I estimate that only 20% of all U.S. cases were identified later through testing. The unidentified share of total cases ranged from 61% to 83% across the states. I estimate that 38% of all cases are asymptomatic, which is consistent with the high shares of unidentified cases.

Note: Funding: None.

Conflict of Interest: None.

Keywords: coronavirus, U.S. states, rate of infection, asymptomatic share, community spread

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Breton, Theodore R., An Estimate of Unidentified and Total U.S. Coronavirus Cases by State on April 11, 2020 (April 28, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3583941 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583941