Download This PaperEstimating Case Fatality and Case Recovery Rates of COVID-19: Is This the Right Thing to Do?
19 Pages Posted: 11 May 2020 Last revised: 23 Mar 2021
Date Written: May 2, 2020
Abstract
Background: Case fatality rates (CFRs) and case recovery rates (CRRs) are frequently used to define health consequences related to a certain disease epidemics, as well as for COVID-19 outbreak.
Objectives: This study aimed to compare various introduced methods and models for the calculation of CFR and CRR related to COVID-19 over a present period of time based on the recent global and national data.
Methods: This analytical epidemiological study was conducted on the detail data from 210 countries and territories around the world on 17 April 2020. We used three different formulas to measure CFR and CRR, considering all possible scenarios.
Results: We committed to show only 72 countries with more than 1000 cases of COVID-19. Overall, using first, second and third estimation models, the CFR were 6.22%, 21.20%, and 8.67%, respectively; similarly, the CRR were estimated as 23.21%, 78.86%, 32.23%, respectively. We have shown CFR vary so much from spatially depend on the methods of estimation which have been implemented and timing of cases reports, that is a lowest CFR of 0.31 in the Singapore, and a CFR of 98.82 in UK. Overall, European region witnessing the highest CFR (9.38 to 24.88).
Conclusion: Even with the more precise method of CFRs estimation, the value is overestimated. Case fatality and recovery rate is not only measure of severity of disease and the better estimation would be the more reliable indicator of country performance fighting against COVID-19.
Note: Funding: No funding source.
Conflict of interest: None.
Ethical Approval: This analytical epidemiologic study was conducted on the detail data from 210 countries and territories around the world on 17 April 2020. This work was approved by Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences Ethical committee.
Keywords: coronavirus; COVID-19; case fatality rates (CFRs); case recovery rates (CRRs)
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation