The Ceec10's Real Convergence Prospects

50 Pages Posted: 17 Apr 2002

See all articles by Jaroslava Hlouskova

Jaroslava Hlouskova

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) - Department of Economics & Finance

Martin Wagner

University of Bern - Institute of Economics

Date Written: April 2002

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth accounting exercise to assess these countries' growth prospects infeasible. Therefore an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close or narrow the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analysed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects of these measures on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

Keywords: Transition economies, growth and convergence, EU accession

JEL Classification: F02, F43, O11, O19

Suggested Citation

Hlouskova, Jaroslava and Wagner, Martin, The Ceec10's Real Convergence Prospects (April 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=307680

Jaroslava Hlouskova (Contact Author)

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) - Department of Economics & Finance ( email )

Josefstädter Straße 39
1080 Vienna
Austria
+43 15 999 1142 (Phone)
+43 15 999 1555 (Fax)

Martin Wagner

University of Bern - Institute of Economics ( email )

Gesellschaftstrasse 49
Bern, CH-3012
Switzerland
+41 31 631 4778 (Phone)
+41 31 631 3992 (Fax)

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