Bayesian Estimation of Cox Models with Non-Nested Random Effects: An Application to the Ratification of Ilo Conventions by Developing Countries

Abstract

We use a multivariate hazard model for the analysis of data on the timing of ratifications of different ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects, one at the country level and the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on the partial likelihood for the inference. Our findings confirm the results of preceding studies that ratification depends both on economic and political factors. Furthermore, the rusults yield insights on the impact of unobserved heterogeneity across member states and conventions on the ratification process.

Keywords: Gibbs sampling, partial likelihood, frailties, duration analysis

JEL Classification: C11, C14, C15, D78, J80, O19