The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - a Model-Based Assessment
21 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2006
Date Written: June 2006
Abstract
This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies for the United States and Canada. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.
Keywords: Pandemics, avian flu, Spanish influenza, Europe, EU
JEL Classification: C5, E13, I12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations
By Alwyn Young
-
The Long-Run Economic Costs of Aids: Theory and an Application to South Africa
By Clive Bell, Shantayanan Devarajan, ...
-
Does the Aids Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?
By David E. Bloom and Ajay S. Mahal
-
By Anne Case, Christina H. Paxson, ...
-
Mothers and Others: Who Invests in Children's Health?
By Anne Case and Christina H. Paxson
-
The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
By David E. Bloom, David Canning, ...
-
Sexually Transmitted Infections, Behavior Change and the Hiv/Aids Epidemic
-
Child Labor and the Education of a Society
By Clive Bell and Hans Gersbach