The Effect of the Earthquake in Central Italy on Depopulation of the Territories Involved

58 Pages Posted: 1 Jun 2023

Abstract

The 2016 earthquake in Central Italy affected a wide peripheral area. Six years afterwards, the resident population in the municipalities involved considerably decreased, but assessing to what extent this was due to the earthquake is not straightforward as the demographic trend was already declining in these territories even before that event. This study aims at estimating the earthquake impact by a diff-in-diff event-study approach which allows to test whether before the event the population dynamics were effectively comparable to those of the control group, made up of similar municipalities in terms of geo-morphological and pre-determined urbanization characteristics. The results show that the earthquake significantly exacerbated the population decrease, with an estimated effect corresponding on average to almost two fifths of the reduction actually observed. The impact is statistically significant for the whole area, but its intensity was higher for the municipalities that suffered the most damage. The overall effect was mostly driven by a worsening in internal net migration. An increased share of elderly population was also detected. These findings suggest that resiliency to a natural disaster shock can be lower in peripheral and demographically fragile areas.

Keywords: Natural Disasters, Inner Areas, Demography

Suggested Citation

Dottori, Davide, The Effect of the Earthquake in Central Italy on Depopulation of the Territories Involved. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4466309 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4466309

Davide Dottori (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

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