A Study on the Analysis of Carbon Emissions and the Evaluation of Carbon Trading in the Vertically Integrated Photovoltaic Industry Chain

Abstract

China is the largest producer of photovoltaic (PV) technology; therefore, the issue of carbon emissions from PV manufacturing enterprises warrants sustained and in-depth attention. To enhance the emission reduction capacity of the PV industry chain and improve the ecological efficiency at each stage, this study systematically develops and applies a framework for a vertically integrated PV industry chain in a specific enterprise, incorporating carbon emission accounting standards and life cycle assessment (LCA) principles to facilitate research on carbon emissions and carbon trading. First, the carbon emission analysis and carbon trading evaluation system was designed and developed using IntelliJ IDEA development tools and the Java programming language. Second, the system was applied to quantify and analyze the carbon emissions of the vertically integrated PV industry chain of the targeted enterprise, as well as to assess the economic benefits and emission reductions associated with its carbon trading. The carbon emission analysis system, along with a combination of contribution, sensitivity, comparative, and improvement analyses, was utilized to assess the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the production of 1 MWp solar cell modules. The results indicated that the production of 1 MWp solar cell modules results in the generation of 433.07 tCO2. The contribution analysis reveals that the most significant CO2 emissions are generated during polysilicon production and solar cell module production, accounting for 37.08% and 28.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis identifies electricity consumption as the most sensitive energy factor, reaching 64.08%. Comparative analysis between the vertically integrated mode and the specialized mode indicates that the total CO2 emissions for the specialized PV industry chain amount to 591.97 t, suggesting that the vertically integrated mode offers more pronounced carbon reduction advantages. Furthermore, the improvement analysis concludes that the PV industry chain should prioritize the use of renewable energy, implement heat recovery systems in polysilicon production, and select more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly materials as alternatives to aluminum frames. Finally, the carbon trading opportunity evaluation system shows that in 2023, the enterprise spends 98,588.61 Chinese Yuan sisi(CNY) and 16,897.57 CNY on the innovation of technology and the purchase of carbon trading allowances, respectively, and the baseline emissions of the enterprise have reached the target emissions standard. At the same time, through the prediction, it is concluded that in 2024, the enterprise will spend 48,248.79 CNY and 19,810.95 CNY through the innovation of technology and the purchase of carbon trading allowances respectively.

Keywords: Vertically integrated；Photovoltaic（PV） industry chain；Carbon emissions；Carbon trading；Life cycle assessment（LCA）