Broken Promises - Evaluating an Incomplete Cash Transfer Program

Abstract

This study uses an unconditional cash grant program in South Sudan that had to be terminated due to conflict to assess the socio-economic, behavioral and psychological consequences of operational problems in development programs. We combine survey data from face-to-face interviews and data from lab experiments to study the unintended impacts of the program cancellation. Results from LATE estimations show that those participants that failed to receive the grant display a reduction in their consumption level and their trust level. Women of this subgroup also display an increase in their risk aversion. We learn about the original program design that participants that received the grants as intended increased their consumption and savings, while business skills and employment did not increase.

Keywords: unconditional cash transfers, trust attitudes, risk aversion, impact evaluation, violent conflict