Vietnam's Evolving Poverty Map: Patterns and Implications for Policy

50 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Peter F. Lanjouw

Peter F. Lanjouw

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Marleen Marra

World Bank

Cuong Viet Nguyen

National Economics University of Vietnam (NEU)

Date Written: February 1, 2013

Abstract

This paper uses small area estimation techniques to update Vietnam's province and district-level poverty map to 2009. It finds that poverty rates continue to be highest in the northern and central mountainous regions, where ethnic minorities make up a large fraction of the population. Poverty has fallen in most provinces and districts over this decade, but the pace of poverty reduction has been least pronounced in those localities with high initial poverty or inequality levels. As a result, poverty rates have become more spatially concentrated over time, which is consistent with widely observed growth processeslinked to agglomeration. The authors hypothesize that this makes geographic targeting of the poor more relevant as a means to re-balance growing welfare disparities between geographic areas. Simulations indicate that in both 1999 and 2009, geographic targeting for poverty alleviation improves upon a uniform lump-sum transfer and this becomes more evident the more spatially disaggregated the target populations. The analysis further indicates that the gains from geographic targeting have become more pronounced over time in Vietnam. Although poverty reduction in Vietnam has been impressive, further progress may thus warrant increased attention to geographic targeting.

Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction, Regional Economic Development, Subnational Economic Development, Achieving Shared Growth

Suggested Citation

Lanjouw, Peter F. and Marra, Marleen and Nguyen Viet, Cuong, Vietnam's Evolving Poverty Map: Patterns and Implications for Policy (February 1, 2013). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6355, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2212583

Peter F. Lanjouw (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

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Marleen Marra

World Bank ( email )

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Cuong Nguyen Viet

National Economics University of Vietnam (NEU) ( email )

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Hanoi, Hanoi 10000
Vietnam

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