Aging, Trade, and Migration
26 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2016
Date Written: June 30, 2016
Abstract
This study considers the role of demand-driven changes arising from population aging and how they affect the pattern of international trade as well as trade and immigration policy. An aging society can see a welfare-reducing reduction in its share of manufacturing output and this reduction is magnified by a decrease in trade costs (an increase in globalization). Immigration can ameliorate this outcome if it is directed toward younger immigrants. A unilateral tariff increase can also reduce firm delocation from an aging country, however, a reciprocated tariff increase will unambiguously harm the country with the older average population.
Keywords: Trade and Multilateral Issues, Rules of Origin, International Trade and Trade Rules, Trade Policy
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