Download This PaperThe Global Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty
13 Pages Posted: 14 May 2020
There are 3 versions of this paper
The Global Effects of Covid-19-induced Uncertainty
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 11/2020
Number of pages: 14
Posted: 09 Jun 2020
Downloads
159
The Global Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty
CAMA Working Paper No. 50/2020
Number of pages: 13
Posted: 05 Jun 2020
Downloads
101
Date Written: 2020
Abstract
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%.
Keywords: Covid-19, financial uncertainty, vector autoregressions, global financial cycle, world industrial production
JEL Classification: C320, E320
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Caggiano, Giovanni and Castelnuovo, Efrem and Kima, Richard, The Global Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8280, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3598766 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3598766
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Feedback
Feedback to SSRN
If you need immediate assistance, call 877-SSRNHelp (877 777 6435) in the United States, or +1 212 448 2500 outside of the United States, 8:30AM to 6:00PM U.S. Eastern, Monday - Friday.