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More than 5.2 Million Children Affected by Global Surges in COVID-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: New Evidence for National Responses

24 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2021

See all articles by H. Juliette T. Unwin

H. Juliette T. Unwin

Imperial College London

Susan Hillis

Government of the United States of America - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Lucie Cluver

University of Oxford

Seth Flaxman

University of Oxford - Department of Computer Science

Philip Goldman

Maestral International

Alexander Butchart

Prevention of Violence Unit, World Health Organization

Gretchen Bachman

USAID

Laura B. Rawlings

World Bank - Latin America & the Caribbean Region

Christl Donnelly

University of Oxford

Oliver Ratmann

Imperial College London - Department of Mathematics

Phil Green

World Without Orphans

Charles A. Nelson

Harvard University - Department of Pediatrics

Alex Blenkinsop

Imperial College London

Samir Bhatt

Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics

Chris Desmond

Imperial College London

Andres Villaveces

Government of the United States of America - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Lorraine Sherr

University College London - Institute for Global Health

More...

Abstract

Background: In the past six months, proliferation of new variants, updated mortality data, and vaccine access disparities have increased estimates of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we modelled increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death; and cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal/paternal). 

Methods: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths between May 1 — October 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Using yearly fertility contributions, we grouped children by age (0-4, 5-9, 10-17), maternal/paternal orphanhood, and modelled global and regional extrapolations. 

Findings: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death increased 90% from April 30 to October 31, 2021: from 2,700,000 [95% CrI 1,976,000-2,987,000] to 5,200,000 [95% CrI 3,751,000-5,826,000]. From April 30, 2020 - October 31, 2021, 490,000 [95% CrI 321,400-573,400] children ages 0-4, 737,000 [95% CrI 485,700-865,800] children 5-9, and 2,144,000 [95% CrI 1,418,800-2,553,900] children 10-17 experienced COVID-associated parental death. In each age-group/region, paternal orphanhood prevalence exceeded maternal orphanhood for children 0-4, 11.5% vs. 3.1%, children 5-9, 17.1% vs. 4.8%, and children 10-17, 48% vs. 15.6% respectively.

Interpretation: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-associated orphanhood increased by 90% in 6 months compared to the first 14 months of the pandemic with 5.0 million COVID-19 deaths and 5.2 million children having lost a parent or caregiver over the entire 20-month period. We provide data on children’s ages and circumstances, to support response planning for children globally.   

Funding Information: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund (GCR), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, U.S. National Institutes of Health, Imperial College.

Declaration of Interests: Dr. Donnelly reports grants from UK Medical Research Council and grants from NIHR during the conduct of the study. Dr. Cluver reports grants from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund, during the conduct of the study. All other authors report nothing to disclose.

Keywords: COVID-19, orphans, vulnerable children, pandemic, caregiver death

Suggested Citation

Unwin, H. Juliette T. and Hillis, Susan and Cluver, Lucie and Flaxman, Seth and Goldman, Philip and Butchart, Alexander and Bachman, Gretchen and Rawlings, Laura B. and Donnelly, Christl and Ratmann, Oliver and Green, Phil and Nelson, Charles A. and Blenkinsop, Alex and Bhatt, Samir and Desmond, Chris and Villaveces, Andres and Sherr, Lorraine, More than 5.2 Million Children Affected by Global Surges in COVID-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death: New Evidence for National Responses. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3971556 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3971556

H. Juliette T. Unwin

Imperial College London

Susan Hillis (Contact Author)

Government of the United States of America - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ( email )

Atlanta
United States

Lucie Cluver

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Seth Flaxman

University of Oxford - Department of Computer Science ( email )

Wolfson Building, Parks Road
Oxford
United Kingdom

Philip Goldman

Maestral International ( email )

Minneapolis, MN
United States

Alexander Butchart

Prevention of Violence Unit, World Health Organization ( email )

20 Avenue Appia
Geneva 27, CH-1211
Switzerland

Gretchen Bachman

USAID

Dhaka
Bangladesh

Laura B. Rawlings

World Bank - Latin America & the Caribbean Region ( email )

Washington, DC 20433
United States

Christl Donnelly

University of Oxford

Oliver Ratmann

Imperial College London - Department of Mathematics ( email )

Phil Green

World Without Orphans ( email )

United Kingdom

Charles A. Nelson

Harvard University - Department of Pediatrics ( email )

Boston, MA
United States

Alex Blenkinsop

Imperial College London ( email )

Samir Bhatt

Imperial College London - NIHR Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling and Health Economics ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Chris Desmond

Imperial College London ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London, SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Andres Villaveces

Government of the United States of America - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ( email )

Atlanta
United States

Lorraine Sherr

University College London - Institute for Global Health ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom