Disaggregate Fluctuations in the Us Farm Output: Testing for Convergence

Abstract

This study examines movements in per farm real output in the US counties, and tests for convergence of output at the aggregate, regional, and divisional levels. The estimations are carried out for the period 1982-1992 and for its two constituent sub-periods, 1982-87 and 1987-92. For the period 1982-92, results show weak convergence at aggregate and regional levels. For the first sub-period 1982-87 (the second sub-period 1987-92) weak convergence (strong divergence) takes place at aggregate and regional levels, except the Northeast region showing strong divergence (weak convergence). These results indicate the Northeast region having distinct movements in farm output compared to the rest of the US. This can, in part, be attributed to the type of farming prevailing in Northeast. At divisional level the estimates are not robust neither for the entire period nor its sub-periods. Overall, the conjecture of the neoclassical growth model is supported at aggregate and regional levels, with unclear pattern at the divisional level.

JEL Classification: R11, R12, R58