Tracking Growth in the Euro Area Subject to a Dimensionality Problem

38 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2021

See all articles by Mariarosaria Comunale

Mariarosaria Comunale

Bank of Lithuania - Economics Department

Francesco Paolo Mongelli

European Central Bank (ECB); Goethe University Frankfurt

Date Written: September 1, 2021

Abstract

We investigate which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years. This is a challenging task due to dimensionality problems: a large set of potential determinants, limited data, and the prospect that some variables could be non-stationary. We assemble a set of 35 real, financial, monetary, and institutional variables for nine of the original euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2016Q4. Using the Weighted-Average Least Squares method, we gather clues about which variables to select. We quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main finding is the positive and robust role of EU institutional integration on long-term growth for all countries in the sample. An improvement in competitiveness matters for growth in the overall euro area in the long run, as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. Debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery, but only in the short run. Property and equity prices have a significant impact only in the short run, whereas the loans to non-financial corporations positively affect the core euro area. An increase in global GDP also supports growth in the euro area.

Keywords: euro area, fiscal policy, GDP growth, institutional integration, institutional reforms, monetary policy, systemic stress

JEL Classification: C23, E40, F33, F43

Suggested Citation

Comunale, Mariarosaria and Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, Tracking Growth in the Euro Area Subject to a Dimensionality Problem (September 1, 2021). ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2591, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3933523 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3933523

Mariarosaria Comunale (Contact Author)

Bank of Lithuania - Economics Department ( email )

Totoriu 4
Vilnius, LT-01121
Lithuania

Francesco Paolo Mongelli

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Goethe University Frankfurt ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

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