Realising the Oil Supply Potential of the CIS: The Impact of Institutions and Policies

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the political economy of oil in the CIS. It briefly situates the region's oil sector potential in the global context, before analysing the structural features of the oil sectors by country. It examines the ways in which CIS oil industries have been organised and governed since 1991, as well as questions of transport infrastructure and export routes, which are especially critical for Central Asia's landlocked producers. The paper finally considers the causes and likely consequences of the recent shift towards greater state ownership and control in Russia and Kazakhstan, the region's most important oil producers. The paper's central argument is that these changes have increased the risk that the full hydrocarbon potential of the CIS may not be developed in a timely and economically efficient way.

Keywords: CIS, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Caspian, energy, oil, pipelines, political economy, growth, corruption, state ownership, pipelines, privatisation, property rights

JEL Classification: L71, O57, P28, Q41