The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the effects of Czech monetary policy on the economy within VAR, structural VAR, and the Factor-Augmented VAR framework. We document a well-functioning transmission mechanism similar to the euro area countries, especially in terms of persistence of monetary policy shocks. Subject to various sensitivity tests, we find that contractionary monetary policy shock has a negative effect on the degree of economic activity and price level, both with a peak response after one year or so. Regarding the prices at the sectoral level, tradables adjust faster than non-tradables, which is in line with microeconomic evidence on price stickiness. There is no price puzzle, as our data come from single monetary policy regime. There is a rationale in using the real-time output gap instead of current GDP growth as using the former results in much more precise estimates. The results indicate a rather persistent appreciation of domestic currency after monetary tightening with a gradual depreciation afterwards.

Keywords: monetary policy transmission, VAR, real-time data, sectoral prices

JEL Classification: E52, E58, E31