How Voters Reward Transfers Compared to Competence: Explaining Pocketbook Voting

30 Pages Posted: 11 Oct 2007 Last revised: 13 Apr 2008

Date Written: March 28, 2008

Abstract

This paper uses state-level election returns and individual-level survey data to show that American voters have systematically punished the incumbent party for extreme weather in presidential election years. A moderate drought has cost the incumbent party an average of 2.6 percent of the presidential vote in rural areas, with no significant effect in urban and suburban areas. Weather's impact has diminished over time as agriculture's economic importance has decreased. The results indicate that a voter's partisan preferences and education predict his rationality. Election-year weather does not significantly affect the behavior of moderate voters or those voters who have attended college.

Keywords: voting behavior, natural disasters, government spending

JEL Classification: D72

Suggested Citation

Healy, Andrew J., How Voters Reward Transfers Compared to Competence: Explaining Pocketbook Voting (March 28, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1020769 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1020769

Andrew J. Healy (Contact Author)

Loyola Marymount University ( email )

7900 Loyola Boulevard
Los Angeles, CA 90045-8350
United States