Long-Run Economic Growth: Modeling Exercise for Emerging Markets

Abstract

This document is intended to show some results about the predictions over the long run economic growth of some emerging markets. Following Lucas (2009) we successfully replicate the estimation about Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong, and we also use the model to predict the per capita GDP in some Latin American countries like Chile, Colombia and Mexico taking United States as the leading economy. We show that there are significant differences in the catch up process between the Asian economies and the Latin American Economies. In Latin America, the convergence process will take more than twice the time needed by the Asian economies to catch up the most advanced economies.

Keywords: economy, agriculture employment, per capita GDP, economic growth

JEL Classification: A23, F41, O33, O47