Has Energy Leapfrogging Occurred on a Large Scale?

27 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2010

See all articles by Arthur van Benthem

Arthur van Benthem

University of Pennsylvania - Business & Public Policy Department

Date Written: October 26, 2010

Abstract

Today’s less-developed countries (LDCs) have access to energy technologies that did not exist when today’s richer countries were at similar stages of development. Do LDCs therefore consume less energy per capita than rich countries in the past? And is their economic growth associated with a lower growth in energy consumption? This paper aims to answer these two questions. I use data on energy consumption, prices and GDP for 76 countries to estimate the income elasticity of energy demand for both current LDCs and industrialized countries in the past. I find that LDCs neither consume less energy than rich countries in the past nor have a lower income elasticity. I conclude that any energy savings from access to more efficient technologies have been offset by other trends, such as a shift towards a more energy-intensive consumption bundle or industrial outsourcing. This conclusion has important implications for projections of future energy consumption and carbon emissions.

Keywords: leapfrogging, technology transfer, forecasting, climate change, energy demand, developing countries

Suggested Citation

van Benthem, Arthur, Has Energy Leapfrogging Occurred on a Large Scale? (October 26, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1698238 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1698238

Arthur Van Benthem (Contact Author)

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