Has Energy Leapfrogging Occurred on a Large Scale?
27 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2010
Date Written: October 26, 2010
Abstract
Today’s less-developed countries (LDCs) have access to energy technologies that did not exist when today’s richer countries were at similar stages of development. Do LDCs therefore consume less energy per capita than rich countries in the past? And is their economic growth associated with a lower growth in energy consumption? This paper aims to answer these two questions. I use data on energy consumption, prices and GDP for 76 countries to estimate the income elasticity of energy demand for both current LDCs and industrialized countries in the past. I find that LDCs neither consume less energy than rich countries in the past nor have a lower income elasticity. I conclude that any energy savings from access to more efficient technologies have been offset by other trends, such as a shift towards a more energy-intensive consumption bundle or industrial outsourcing. This conclusion has important implications for projections of future energy consumption and carbon emissions.
Keywords: leapfrogging, technology transfer, forecasting, climate change, energy demand, developing countries
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