Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People’s Republic of China

18 Pages Posted: 29 Mar 2011

See all articles by Tun Lin

Tun Lin

Asian Development Bank - East Asia Department

Xiaoyun Liu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Guanghua Wan

Asian Development Bank Institute

Xian Xin

China Agricultural University - College of Economics and Management; University of Western Ontario

Zhang Yongsheng

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: January 1, 2011

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in the agricultural interregional trade pattern. In this paper, we investigate the climate change impacts on this trade pattern, using a computable general equilibrium model of multiple regions and multiple sectors. The results indicate that Northwest, South, Central, and Northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from East, North, and Southwest PRC will decrease. Grain handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows.

Keywords: Climate change, Agriculture, Interregional trade, People’s Republic of China

JEL Classification: Q54, R11

Suggested Citation

Lin, Tun and Liu, Xiaoyun and Wan, Guanghua and Xin, Xian and Yongsheng, Zhang, Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People’s Republic of China (January 1, 2011). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper No. 244, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1789478 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1789478

Tun Lin (Contact Author)

Asian Development Bank - East Asia Department ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Xiaoyun Liu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Guanghua Wan

Asian Development Bank Institute ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Xian Xin

China Agricultural University - College of Economics and Management ( email )

Beijing
China

University of Western Ontario

1151 Richmond Street
Suite 2
London, Ontario N6A 5B8
Canada

Zhang Yongsheng

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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