Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
MEF Working Paper No. 5
44 Pages Posted: 10 May 2011
There are 4 versions of this paper
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
Date Written: March 1, 2011
Abstract
We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on downward real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U.S. episodes which a linear model based only on long-run productivity growth cannot fully explain. These are the decline in long-run unemployment over the 1980s and its rise during the late 2000s.
Keywords: Unemployment, Productivity growth, Volatility
JEL Classification: E0, E20, E40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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