Justice and the Peace: A Time‐Sensitive Empirical Evaluation
Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, March 2011
42 Pages Posted: 3 Oct 2011
Date Written: March 1, 2011
Abstract
Prevalent in current discussions of peace-building are various claims about the ways in which justice-seeking mechanisms - like human rights trials and truth and reconciliation commissions - can quell violent conflict. In fact, ‘transitional justice’ has attained the status of orthodoxy among global peace-promoting actors and international institutions. Though propositions about the pacifying effects of transitional justice mechanisms have swirled about for over a decade, to date very few comprehensive studies have adequately evaluated them. In fact, many ‘realist’ scholars oriented toward producing political order remain justifiably skeptical regarding the impact of transitional justice institutions: what if they actually are destabilizing and cause a relapse into violent conflict? Furthermore, there has been little interaction between legalistic approaches emphasizing ‘unproven possibilities’ and scientific approaches emphasizing ‘empirical realities.’ More specifically, those deeply involved with transitional justice have rarely crossed paths with those enmeshed in conflict studies. We seek to address the lack of hypothesis-testing and dialogue by constructing an integrated model of peace transition, duration, and conflict recurrence that incorporates the newest information on cross-national transitional justice efforts. Utilizing the PRIO dataset, we test the proposition that domestic trials and truth commissions are more effective than political amnesties and repression for producing a lasting peace. Depending on the model chosen, we show that transitional justice mechanisms at worst have no effect, and at best slightly extend the duration of peace following violent conflict. Our findings encourage a reevaluation of the peace v. justice debate, one that moves toward more humility on each side.
Keywords: transitional justice, civil war, amnesty, trial, truth commission, human rights
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