A Semi-Aggregate Model for Social Expenditure Projections

ENEPRI Research Report No. 62

60 Pages Posted: 4 Apr 2012

See all articles by Pier Marco Ferraresi

Pier Marco Ferraresi

Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies (CeRP)

Chiara Monticone

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

Date Written: January 13, 2009

Abstract

This report describes the semi-aggregate model (SAM) developed to deliver aggregate projections of social protection expenditures as well as semi-aggregate projections of income sources by age class and gender for a number of European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and United Kingdom) over the horizon 2005 - 2050. The partial equilibrium stance adopted allows both a greater flexibility in the choice of countries and in the building of scenarios, while at the same time offering an easier understanding of the model’s inner mechanisms with respect to general equilibrium modelling. Results for aggregate projections are presented, including various sensitivity scenarios devoted at analyzing the role of theoretical replacement rates and employment rates – such as the one necessary to fulfill the Lisbon targets – on public pensions expenditures.

Keywords: social expenditure, aggregate projections, expenditure, semi-aggregate model, SAM, semi-aggregate, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom, employment, pensions

Suggested Citation

Ferraresi, Pier Marco and Monticone, Chiara, A Semi-Aggregate Model for Social Expenditure Projections (January 13, 2009). ENEPRI Research Report No. 62, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2033644 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2033644

Pier Marco Ferraresi (Contact Author)

Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies (CeRP) ( email )

Via Real Collegio, 30
Moncalieri, Turin
Italy

Chiara Monticone

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, 75775
France

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