What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden
58 Pages Posted: 4 May 2012
Date Written: March 30, 2012
Abstract
We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature - despite important implications for modern-day pandemics. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. Using difference-in-differences and high-quality administrative data from Sweden, we estimate the effects on earnings, capital returns and poverty. We find that the pandemic led to a signicant increase in poverty rates. There is also relatively strong evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. On the other hand, we find robust evidence that the influenza had no discernible effect on earnings. This finding is surprising since it goes against most previous empirical studies as well as theoretical predictions.
Keywords: Spanish Flu, Difference-in-Differences
JEL Classification: I18, J31, O40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987
-
Gallman's Annual Output Series for the United States, 1834-1909
-
Until it's Over, Over There: The U.S. Economy in World War I
By Hugh Rockoff
-
Wars, Redistribution and Civilian Federal Expenditures in the Us Over the Twentieth Century
By Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Alex Cukierman, ...
-
War and Pestilence as Labor Market Shocks: Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914-1919
-
War and Pestilence as Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914-1919
-
Wage Flexibility and Economic Performance: Evidence Across Industrial Countries
By Magda Kandil